Haugesund 4-4 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 38%, yet in-form ODD Ballklubb provide a compelling counter-argument — this Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Stadion plays host to Haugesund versus ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 27 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Haugesund Stadion, Haugesund have gone 4W 1D 4L this season (9 games, 1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 4W 0D 4L from 8 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
ODD Ballklubb arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Haugesund 0W, ODD Ballklubb 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 50% versus ODD Ballklubb 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 56% | ODD Ballklubb 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.44 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.853 / defence 1.221 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.831 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.414. ODD Ballklubb bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Haugesund games / 18 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 38% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 37%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | ODD Ballklubb 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ODD Ballklubb (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 56% | ODD Ballklubb 25%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 38% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Haugesund 1.44 / ODD Ballklubb 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.853 / def 1.221 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.831 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.43
ODD Ballklubb xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 27 September 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Haugesund 4 - 4 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 38% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.83x) against Haugesund's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
38%
2.65
25%
4.02
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.87
1.43
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.14
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.43 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haugesund come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 3D 9L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (11W 1D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Haugesund's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.78 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 11W 1D 6L in their last 18 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Haugesund's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.62 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Haugesund or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Haugesund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 0-4 on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
4
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Haugesund 2-1 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 50%, ODD Ballklubb 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Haugesund) and 38% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 38%; ODD Ballklubb in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Haugesund's recent matches and 25% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Haugesund's recent games and 38% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 4-4 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.44 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.43 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.85 / defence 1.22 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 38% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 37%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 56%, ODD Ballklubb 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.