Haugesund 0-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Brann travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund in Eliteserien (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Haugesund stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Haugesund have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Brann have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brann's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brann are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Haugesund have won 3, Brann 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Jul 2024, ended Haugesund 1–1 Brann — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Brann trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 49% versus Brann 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 51% | Brann 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Haugesund surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Brann have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.95 xG and Brann 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.590 / defence 0.793 | Brann attack 1.341 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.229. Haugesund's attack rating of 0.590 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Brann have an above-average attack rating of 1.341, which lifts their away xG to 1.31. Haugesund have a tight defence (rating 0.793), which is pulling Brann's projected output down. Data: built from Haugesund's last 53 games and Brann's last 53.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 27% | Draw 28% | Brann 45%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.69 | Draw 3.56 | Brann 2.23. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Haugesund 30% (last 10 home games) | Brann 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 24 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 27% | Draw 28% | Brann 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Haugesund 0.95 / Brann 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.590 / def 0.793 | Brann attack 1.341 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Brann (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Brann xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haugesund vs Brann FAQs
What time does Haugesund vs Brann kick off?
Haugesund vs Brann kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Haugesund 0 - 1 Brann.
Where is Haugesund vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Brann part of?
Haugesund vs Brann is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 24) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 27% chance of winning, Brann a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Haugesund and Brann will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Haugesund vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.59) and Brann's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haugesund's last 53 games and Brann's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
27%
3.69
28%
3.56
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.26
1.31
Brann xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haugesund vs Brann Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.31 for Brann, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 15W 11D 27L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 31W 11D 11L from 53 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 26 home games (11W 3D 12L).
On the road, Brann have gone 12W 7D 7L from their last 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.81 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Brann
Blended
Haugesund (Home) vs Brann (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haugesund
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Haugesund vs Brann Form FAQs
What form are Haugesund and Brann in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 11D 27L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while Brann have gone 31W 11D 11L in their last 53 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.38 PPG; Brann away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Brann in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from June 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 18 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won Brann 3-0 Haugesund.
Haugesund's record when hosting Brann specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Haugesund vs Brann H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haugesund have won 3, Brann have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Brann last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 46%, Brann 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Haugesund) and 54% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Brann in 31%; Haugesund have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haugesund vs Brann Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haugesund and Brann matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Haugesund's recent matches and 58% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Haugesund and Brann matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Haugesund's recent games and 54% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Brann matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Haugesund's recent matches and 85% of Brann's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Haugesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Haugesund 0-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.95 xG and Brann 1.31 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.59 / defence 0.79 against Brann attack 1.34 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 27% | Draw 28% | Brann 45%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 51%, Brann 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.