Ham-Kam 2-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 47%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Viking have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Viking in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Viking hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Viking winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 48% versus Viking 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 50% | Viking 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.86 xG and Viking 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.057 / defence 0.960 | Viking attack 1.115 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.945 / away 1.371. Data: 30 Ham-Kam games / 30 Viking games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 22% | Viking 31%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Viking 3.23. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 70% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 22% | Viking 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Ham-Kam 1.86 / Viking 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.057 / def 0.960 | Viking attack 1.115 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.945 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Viking xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Viking kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Viking kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Ham-Kam 2 - 1 Viking.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Viking part of?
Ham-Kam vs Viking is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 47% chance of winning, Viking a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ham-Kam and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Record (8 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 2 | Viking 5W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Viking in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.11x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
47%
2.13
22%
4.45
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.33
1.47
Viking xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
5%
21.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.47 for Viking, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 18W 16D 26L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Viking's form line: 38W 14D 8L from 60 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
On the road, Viking have gone 16W 8D 6L from 30 away games — 1.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 68%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Viking in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 18W 16D 26L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Viking have gone 38W 14D 8L in their last 60 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.33 PPG; Viking away: 1.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 7-3 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Viking?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 50%, Viking 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ham-Kam and 70% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ham-Kam's games and 73% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ham-Kam's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do Ham-Kam and Viking tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Viking in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Viking 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Viking 2-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.86 xG and Viking 1.47 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Viking attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 22% | Viking 31%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 50%, Viking 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Ham-Kam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.