Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Market Odds
Tromso are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Ham-Kam 3.43 (27%) | Draw 3.19 (29%) | Tromso 2.12 (44%).
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Briskeby Arena. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.
Tromso (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Ham-Kam, 1.60 for Tromso — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Tromso hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Tromso winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Tromso have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Tromso — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 61% versus Tromso 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 66% | Tromso 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.81 xG and Tromso 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.051 / defence 0.959 | Tromso attack 0.892 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.148. Data: 41 Ham-Kam games / 44 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 57% | Draw 23% | Tromso 20%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Tromso 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 57% but the market prices Tromso shorter — model and market disagree on the likely winner; consider draw no bet on the home side.
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. The model sees Ham-Kam as more likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 57% versus the market's fair-implied 27% (priced at 3.43). Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting. The market (2.01, fair-implied 47%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 50% | Tromso 40%. Market pricing (1.78, fair-implied 52%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 57% | Draw 23% | Tromso 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Ham-Kam 1.81 / Tromso 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.051 / def 0.959 | Tromso attack 0.892 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Ham-Kam 3.43 (impl 27%) | Draw 3.19 (impl 29%) | Tromso 2.12 (impl 44%) • Market favourite: Tromso at 2.12 • Poisson vs market contradiction: market prices Tromso as favourite (implied 44%) but Poisson rates Ham-Kam higher at 57% — model diverges from the market; potential value on the home side • Ham-Kam Win: Poisson 57% vs market fair-implied 27% (30pp gap) — the model sees Ham-Kam as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Tromso Win: Poisson 20% vs market fair-implied 44% (24pp gap) — the model sees Tromso as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 2.01 (impl 50%) / Under 2.5 1.77 (impl 56%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 53% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.78 (impl 56%) / No 1.92 (impl 52%) | Poisson BTTS probability 52%
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Tromso xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Tromso kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Tromso kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 July 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Ham-Kam 1 - 4 Tromso.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Tromso part of?
Ham-Kam vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 57% chance of winning, Tromso a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ham-Kam and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
Record (8 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 2 | Tromso 6W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Tromso in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Tromso (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
1X2 market: Ham-Kam 3.43 (impl 27%) | Draw 3.19 (impl 29%) | Tromso 2.12 (impl 44%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (1.05) and Tromso's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.89x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 41/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.36
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.79
0.98
Tromso xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
30.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.98 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 15W 10D 16L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso's form line: 25W 7D 9L from 41 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tromso are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Ham-Kam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tromso have gone 10W 4D 5L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.66 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Tromso in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Tromso in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 15W 10D 16L in their last 41 games (1.34 PPG), while Tromso have gone 25W 7D 9L in their last 41 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Tromso away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.89 PPG; Tromso away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Tromso in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 1-4 on 18 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
7
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 0, Tromso have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 63%, Tromso 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Ham-Kam) and 47% (Tromso). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Tromso in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ham-Kam's games and 53% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Ham-Kam's matches and 47% of Tromso's.
Do Ham-Kam and Tromso tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Tromso in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tromso run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Ham-Kam 1-4 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.81 xG and Tromso 0.98 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Tromso outscored their 0.98 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Tromso attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 57% | Draw 23% | Tromso 20%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Tromso win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 66%, Tromso 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.