Ham-Kam 0-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Tromso (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Ham-Kam, 1.30 for Tromso — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Tromso hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Tromso winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Tromso have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Tromso — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 46% versus Tromso 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 54% | Tromso 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.18 xG and Tromso 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.869 / defence 0.908 | Tromso attack 0.797 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.504. Data: 43 Ham-Kam games / 43 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 29% | Tromso 33%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Tromso 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 40% | Tromso 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 29% | Tromso 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Ham-Kam 1.18 / Tromso 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.869 / def 0.908 | Tromso attack 0.797 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Tromso xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Tromso kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Ham-Kam 0 - 0 Tromso.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Tromso part of?
Ham-Kam vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 38% chance of winning, Tromso a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ham-Kam and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
Record (4 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 0 | Tromso 4W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Tromso in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Tromso (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.87) and Tromso's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.80x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.50
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.27
1.09
Tromso xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.09 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 13W 8D 22L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso's form line: 23W 5D 15L from 43 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tromso are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
On the road, Tromso have gone 11W 3D 6L from 20 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.49 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Tromso in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 13W 8D 22L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Tromso have gone 23W 5D 15L in their last 43 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.25 PPG; Tromso away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 1-4 on 18 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
7
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 0, Tromso have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 35%, Tromso 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ham-Kam) and 60% (Tromso). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 55% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ham-Kam's matches and 60% of Tromso's.
Do Ham-Kam and Tromso tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Tromso in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ham-Kam's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.18 xG and Tromso 1.09 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Tromso attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 29% | Tromso 33%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 54%, Tromso 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tromso's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.