Ham-Kam 1-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ham-Kam host Stromsgodset at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam at Briskeby Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ham-Kam 0.90 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ham-Kam, 0 for Stromsgodset and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 65% versus Stromsgodset 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 50% | Stromsgodset 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.36 xG and Stromsgodset 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.677 / defence 0.937 | Stromsgodset attack 0.657 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.391. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Ham-Kam games / 56 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 49% | Draw 28% | Stromsgodset 24%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Stromsgodset 4.17. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 60% | Stromsgodset 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 49% | Draw 28% | Stromsgodset 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Ham-Kam 1.36 / Stromsgodset 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.677 / def 0.937 | Stromsgodset attack 0.657 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Stromsgodset xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Ham-Kam 1 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset part of?
Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 49% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
Record (1 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.60
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.22
0.86
Stromsgodset xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.86 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 5W 12D 9L from 26 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 12L across 26 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.04 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 4W 5D 4L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 2W 3D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.50 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 5W 12D 9L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 9W 5D 12L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Stromsgodset away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.31 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 May 2025, when Ham-Kam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 1-2 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 54%, Stromsgodset 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ham-Kam) and 62% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 31% of games; Stromsgodset in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 31% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 62% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset finished level at 1-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.36 xG and Stromsgodset 0.86 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.68 / defence 0.94 against Stromsgodset attack 0.66 / defence 1.14, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 49% | Draw 28% | Stromsgodset 24%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 50%, Stromsgodset 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.04 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.