Ham-Kam 1-2 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ham-Kam host Stromsgodset at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam at Briskeby Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ham-Kam 1.00 PPG, Stromsgodset 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ham-Kam register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Stromsgodset in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ham-Kam, 1 for Stromsgodset and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2025, ended 3–0 with Ham-Kam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 46% versus Stromsgodset 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 44% | Stromsgodset 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Stromsgodset 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.801 / defence 1.140 | Stromsgodset attack 0.974 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.387. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Ham-Kam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Ham-Kam games / 50 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 36%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Stromsgodset 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 80% | Stromsgodset 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Ham-Kam 1.64 / Stromsgodset 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.801 / def 1.140 | Stromsgodset attack 0.974 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Stromsgodset xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Ham-Kam 1 - 2 Stromsgodset.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset part of?
Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 40% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
Record (7 meetings): Ham-Kam 3W | Draws 3 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.09
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.18
1.54
Stromsgodset xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.54 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 13W 15D 22L from 50 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 27L across 50 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.08 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 7W 7D 11L from 25 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 5W 5D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.16 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 13W 15D 22L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 14W 9D 27L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Stromsgodset away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.12 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 May 2025, when Ham-Kam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 1-2 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 48%, Stromsgodset 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ham-Kam) and 60% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 32% of games; Stromsgodset in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 48% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 60% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Ham-Kam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Ham-Kam 1-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Stromsgodset 1.54 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Stromsgodset attack 0.97 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 36%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 44%, Stromsgodset 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.08 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.