Ham-Kam 5-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ham-Kam and Lillestrom meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Ham-Kam's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Ham-Kam have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Lillestrom have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Lillestrom away from home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Ham-Kam. A 1.00 PPG lead over Lillestrom (1.50 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Ham-Kam, 2 for Lillestrom and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Ham-Kam 1–1 Lillestrom — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Lillestrom 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 52% | Lillestrom 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.53 xG and Lillestrom 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.801 / defence 0.945 | Lillestrom attack 0.836 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.263. Lillestrom's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ham-Kam's projected output up. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 52 games and Lillestrom's last 52.

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 25%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.02 | Draw 3.89 | Lillestrom 4.05. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 40% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 50% (last 10 away games).

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