Fredrikstad 1-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fredrikstad's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
Ham-Kam have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fredrikstad, 0 for Ham-Kam and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Fredrikstad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 43% versus Ham-Kam 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 43% | Ham-Kam 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.42 xG and Ham-Kam 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.869 / defence 1.031 | Ham-Kam attack 1.049 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Fredrikstad games / 58 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 38% | Draw 25% | Ham-Kam 36%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Ham-Kam 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 40% | Ham-Kam 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 38% | Draw 25% | Ham-Kam 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Fredrikstad 1.42 / Ham-Kam 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.869 / def 1.031 | Ham-Kam attack 1.049 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Ham-Kam xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Fredrikstad 1 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam part of?
Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 38% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
Record (1 meetings): Fredrikstad 1W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.87) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (1.05x) against Fredrikstad's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
38%
2.61
25%
3.95
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.79
1.37
Ham-Kam xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.37 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 12W 9D 7L from 28 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 11L across 28 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 6W 6D 2L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.21 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 12W 9D 7L in their last 28 games (1.61 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Ham-Kam away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.71 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fredrikstad 2-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 43%, Ham-Kam 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Fredrikstad) and 50% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 36% of games; Ham-Kam in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 57% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 50% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Ham-Kam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Ham-Kam 1-0 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.42 xG and Ham-Kam 1.37 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Ham-Kam attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 38% | Draw 25% | Ham-Kam 36%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 43%, Ham-Kam 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.