Fredrikstad 0-4 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fredrikstad have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 1L across 9 games at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion this term (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
Brann (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Fredrikstad, 1.60 for Brann — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fredrikstad, 0 for Brann and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Fredrikstad winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 39% versus Brann 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 39% | Brann 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.16 xG and Brann 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.731 / defence 0.759 | Brann attack 1.131 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.339. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fredrikstad's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Fredrikstad games / 48 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 36% | Draw 28% | Brann 36%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Brann 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 33% | Brann 70%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 36% | Draw 28% | Brann 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Fredrikstad 1.16 / Brann 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.731 / def 0.759 | Brann attack 1.131 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Brann xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Brann kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Brann kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Brann?
Fredrikstad 0 - 4 Brann.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Brann part of?
Fredrikstad vs Brann is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 36% chance of winning, Brann a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fredrikstad and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Brann?
Record (1 meetings): Fredrikstad 1W | Draws 0 | Brann 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Brann in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Brann (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.73) and Brann's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.13x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
36%
2.78
28%
3.53
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.30
1.15
Brann xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.15 for Brann, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 8W 7D 3L from 18 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 3L across 18 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.83 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 3W 5D 1L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brann's away record stands at 4W 4D 1L across 9 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 61%.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Brann in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 8W 7D 3L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while Brann have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.56 PPG; Brann away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Brann in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Brann go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 0-4 on 18 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Fredrikstad
0
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Brann?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 2, Brann have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Brann 3-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 33%, Brann 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Fredrikstad) and 56% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Fredrikstad's games and 78% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 56% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Brann tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Brann in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Fredrikstad 0-4 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.16 xG and Brann 1.15 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Brann outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.73 / defence 0.76 against Brann attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 36% | Draw 28% | Brann 36%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 39%, Brann 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.72 PPG, Brann 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.