Brann 1-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brann at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brann host Stromsgodset at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 July 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Brann — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 5W 2D 0L from 7 Eliteserien appearances (2.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.43 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Brann are significantly better at Brann Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brann at 1.70 PPG versus Stromsgodset's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brann register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, Stromsgodset in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Brann, 2 for Stromsgodset and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 64% versus Stromsgodset 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 71% | Stromsgodset 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.71 xG and Stromsgodset 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.095 / defence 0.997 | Stromsgodset attack 0.961 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.270. Data: 14 Brann games / 43 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 49% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 27%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Stromsgodset 3.70. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brann 71% | Stromsgodset 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 49% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Brann 1.71 / Stromsgodset 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.095 / def 0.997 | Stromsgodset attack 0.961 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Brann (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Stromsgodset xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Brann vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Brann 1 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Brann vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Stromsgodset part of?
Brann vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 49% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Brann and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Stromsgodset?
Record (4 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 2W.
What form are Brann and Stromsgodset in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brann's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.19
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Brann xG
Total xG
2.92
1.22
Stromsgodset xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
5%
20.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Brann and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Brann and 1.22 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 3D 4L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stromsgodset sit at 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (6W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 1.71 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brann's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stromsgodset have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.50 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stromsgodset in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Stromsgodset away?
Brann's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.43 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Brann or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2021, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Brann
2
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Stromsgodset?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 71%, Stromsgodset 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 86% (Brann) and 29% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Brann's games and 57% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Brann's matches and 29% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Brann and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Stromsgodset 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Stromsgodset 1-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.71 xG and Stromsgodset 1.22 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stromsgodset landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Stromsgodset attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 14/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 49% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 27%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 71%, Stromsgodset 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.71 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.