Brann 1-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 39%, yet in-form Haugesund provide a compelling counter-argument — this Brann vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Haugesund travel to Brann Stadion to take on Brann. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Brann — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haugesund — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Brann, 0 for Haugesund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2020, ended 2–1 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 70% versus Haugesund 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 56% | Haugesund 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.23 xG and Haugesund 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.757 / defence 1.162 | Haugesund attack 0.688 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.359. Brann's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Brann games / 23 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 32%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Haugesund 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haugesund (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Brann 90% | Haugesund 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Brann 1.23 / Haugesund 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.757 / def 1.162 | Haugesund attack 0.688 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Brann (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Haugesund xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Haugesund kick off?
Brann vs Haugesund kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 7 November 2020 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Brann 1 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Brann vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Haugesund part of?
Brann vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 39% chance of winning, Haugesund a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Brann and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
Record (1 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Brann and Haugesund in?
Brann (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.76) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.49
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Brann xG
Total xG
2.32
1.09
Haugesund xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Brann and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Brann and 1.09 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 7D 10L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 1.09 PPG, Haugesund on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brann's home form reads 2W 4D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.17 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 8W 4D 11L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Haugesund away?
Haugesund's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 0.91 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Brann or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Haugesund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Haugesund?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 82%, Haugesund 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Brann) and 46% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 36%; Haugesund in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Brann's games and 46% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Brann's recent games and 46% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and Haugesund tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Brann 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Brann 1-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.23 xG and Haugesund 1.09 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against Haugesund attack 0.69 / defence 1.19, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 39% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 32%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 56%, Haugesund 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.09 PPG, Haugesund 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.