Brann 3-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Brann have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Ham-Kam managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Brann a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 61% versus Ham-Kam 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 68% | Ham-Kam 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.74 xG and Ham-Kam 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.071 / defence 0.942 | Ham-Kam attack 0.895 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.366. Data: 59 Brann games / 59 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 4.00. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Ham-Kam 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Brann 1.74 / Ham-Kam 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.071 / def 0.942 | Ham-Kam attack 0.895 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Brann (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Ham-Kam xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Brann vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Brann 3 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Brann vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Ham-Kam part of?
Brann vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 51% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Brann and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Ham-Kam?
Record (5 meetings): Brann 4W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Brann and Ham-Kam in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brann's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.90x) against Brann's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.24
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Brann xG
Total xG
2.90
1.15
Ham-Kam xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
4%
22.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Brann and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Brann and 1.15 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 59 games, going 33W 13D 13L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.19 PPG from 59 outings (18W 16D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 18W 6D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 1.03 points per game from 29 outings (7W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.27 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 33W 13D 13L in their last 59 games (1.90 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 18W 16D 25L in their last 59 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Ham-Kam away?
Brann's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.07 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Brann have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 1-5 on 6 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Brann
1
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Brann have won 7, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Brann 3-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Ham-Kam?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 62%, Ham-Kam 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Brann) and 48% (Ham-Kam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ham-Kam in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Brann's recent matches and 45% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Brann's matches and 48% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Brann and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Ham-Kam 3-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.74 xG and Ham-Kam 1.15 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 68%, Ham-Kam 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.