Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Brann – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Brann.

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Analysis

Brann make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.

Brann have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Brann have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 0.90 PPG lead over Brann (2.50 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Bodo/Glimt, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Brann — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Brann — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 57% versus Brann 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 67% | Brann 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.31 xG and Brann 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.454 / defence 0.672 | Brann attack 1.524 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.743 / away 1.198. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Brann have an above-average attack strength of 1.524 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.672 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Bodo/Glimt games / 40 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 19% | Brann 19%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Brann 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.

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