Aalesund 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Color Line Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund at Color Line Stadion this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 home games — 0.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sarpsborg 08 FF arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Aalesund, 1 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2020, ended 0–4 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 81%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 81% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 81% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.79 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.881 / defence 1.822 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.698 / defence 1.475. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.443. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.475 — this is suppressing Aalesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Aalesund games / 16 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 38% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.63 | Draw 4.55 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 100% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 38% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Aalesund 1.79 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.881 / def 1.822 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.698 / def 1.475 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 September 2020 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Aalesund 0 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 38% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (1 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aalesund's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.70x) against Aalesund's defence (1.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
38%
2.62
22%
4.58
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Aalesund xG
Total xG
3.63
1.84
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
6%
16.44
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.84 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Aalesund have picked up 0.44 PPG on a 1W 4D 11L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 5W 2D 9L from 16 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sarpsborg 08 FF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aalesund are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.94 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 1W 4D 11L in their last 16 games (0.44 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Aalesund's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.71 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 2 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Aalesund
0
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Aalesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Aalesund, 57% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Aalesund and 71% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Aalesund's games and 57% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Aalesund's matches and 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Aalesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Aalesund 0-1 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.79 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.84 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Aalesund fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.88 / defence 1.82 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.70 / defence 1.48, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 38% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 81%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.