Aalesund 2-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aalesund at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Color Line Stadion to face Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 29 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Aalesund (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Aalesund have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Ham-Kam have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Aalesund against 1.60 for Ham-Kam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Aalesund 0W, Ham-Kam 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Ham-Kam winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.71 xG and Ham-Kam 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.887 / defence 1.312 | Ham-Kam attack 0.946 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.159. Data: 10 Aalesund games / 39 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 44% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 32%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aalesund at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aalesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 44% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Aalesund 1.71 / Ham-Kam 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.887 / def 1.312 | Ham-Kam attack 0.946 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Ham-Kam xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Aalesund vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 May 2026 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Ham-Kam?
Aalesund 2 - 2 Ham-Kam.
Where is Aalesund vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Ham-Kam part of?
Aalesund vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 44% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Aalesund and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Ham-Kam?
Record (4 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 2W.
What form are Aalesund and Ham-Kam in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.89) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.95x) against Aalesund's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 10/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.25
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Aalesund xG
Total xG
3.15
1.44
Ham-Kam xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
6%
17.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.44 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aalesund's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aalesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ham-Kam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Aalesund against 1.50 for Ham-Kam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 3.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Ham-Kam's attacking output running into Aalesund's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Ham-Kam in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Early Season
Ham-Kam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Aalesund or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Aalesund
4
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Ham-Kam?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Aalesund's recent matches and 50% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aalesund vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Aalesund's matches and 100% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Aalesund and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aalesund and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Aalesund and Ham-Kam drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.71 xG and Ham-Kam 1.44 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.89 / defence 1.31 against Ham-Kam attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 10/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 44% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 32%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 50%, Ham-Kam 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.50 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aalesund shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.