Aalesund 1-6 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt meet at Color Line Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.17 conceded. However, 3.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Aalesund have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aalesund at Color Line Stadion this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 3.00 PPG across 6 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bodo/Glimt have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side — 2.50 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Aalesund have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 83%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 83%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 100% and Bodo/Glimt 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 83% | Bodo/Glimt 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.33 xG and Bodo/Glimt 3.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.930 / defence 1.558 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.453 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.572. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — the away xG of 3.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Aalesund games / 6 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 10% | Draw 12% | Bodo/Glimt 79%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 10.00 | Draw 8.33 | Bodo/Glimt 1.27. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (79%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 3.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.89 combined xG gives a 87% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 100% | Bodo/Glimt 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 10% | Draw 12% | Bodo/Glimt 79% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 71% | xG Aalesund 1.33 / Bodo/Glimt 3.56 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.930 / def 1.558 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.453 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.572 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
3.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
71%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 July 2020 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Aalesund 1 - 6 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 10% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 79% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt in?
Aalesund (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.17 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-0D-0L in 6 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Aalesund's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.45x) against Aalesund's defence (1.56x) — and the away total comes out at 3.56.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-3 carries the highest individual probability at 7.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-4 (6.7%), 1-2 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
10%
10.07
12%
8.66
79%
1.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
7.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 4
6.7%
Away win
1 – 2
6.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Aalesund xG
Total xG
4.89
3.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
10.07
10%
Home win
8.66
12%
Draw
1.27
79%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
72%
Over 3.5
1.39
28%
Under 3.5
3.57
54%
Over 4.5
1.85
46%
Under 4.5
2.17
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
3%
35.13
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
0%
–
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| 1 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 4.8 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Aalesund and 3.56 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 4.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Aalesund have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 3D 3L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Aalesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 6W 0D 0L from 6 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 2.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.17 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 4.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Early Season
Bodo/Glimt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 6W 0D 0L in their last 6 (3.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.33 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 on 8 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Aalesund
0
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Aalesund, 67% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Aalesund and 100% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Aalesund's games and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Aalesund's matches and 100% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Aalesund 1-6 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.33 xG and Bodo/Glimt 3.56 xG, a combined 4.89. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 3.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.93 / defence 1.56 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.45 / defence 1.13, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 10% | Draw 12% | Bodo/Glimt 79%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 79%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 72% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 92% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 83%, Bodo/Glimt 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.