Willem II 1-3 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Cambuur at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur away from home this season: 4W 0D 3L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cambuur — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cambuur trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 53% and Cambuur 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Willem II 67% | Cambuur 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.18 xG and Cambuur 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.651 / defence 1.288 | Cambuur attack 0.992 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.336. Willem II's attack strength of 0.651 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Willem II games / 15 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 26% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 50%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 2.00. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 43% | Cambuur 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 26% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Willem II 1.18 / Cambuur 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.651 / def 1.288 | Cambuur attack 0.992 / def 1.474 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Cambuur xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Cambuur kick off?
Willem II vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Willem II 1 - 3 Cambuur.
Where is Willem II vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Cambuur part of?
Willem II vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 26% chance of winning, Cambuur a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Willem II and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in?
Willem II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.65x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
26%
3.78
24%
4.19
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.89
1.71
Cambuur xG
3.78
26%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
5%
20.83
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Willem II and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Willem II and 1.71 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 8W 0D 7L across 15 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 4W 0D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.80 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 8W 0D 7L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.43 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Willem II's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Willem II
3
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Cambuur have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Willem II 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 43%, Cambuur 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Willem II and 71% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 43% of games; Cambuur in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Willem II's recent matches and 43% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Willem II's matches and 71% of Cambuur's.
Do Willem II and Cambuur tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Willem II 1-3 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.18 xG and Cambuur 1.71 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cambuur outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.65 / defence 1.29 against Cambuur attack 0.99 / defence 1.47, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 26% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 50%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 67%, Cambuur 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.