Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Utrecht in Eredivisie (matchday 30). Kick-off: Friday 25 April 2025 at 18:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Waalwijk have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Waalwijk have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Utrecht (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Utrecht have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Utrecht arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Waalwijk, 2 for Utrecht and 5 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Waalwijk 2–3 Utrecht — a Utrecht win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Utrecht — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 57% and Utrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 59% | Utrecht 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Waalwijk surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Utrecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.32 xG and Utrecht 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.828 / defence 1.041 | Utrecht attack 1.373 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.301. Utrecht have an above-average attack rating of 1.373, which lifts their away xG to 1.86. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 63 games and Utrecht's last 64.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 27% | Draw 24% | Utrecht 49%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.74 | Draw 4.19 | Utrecht 2.02. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.32 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 40% (last 10 home games) | Utrecht 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 30 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 April 2025 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 27% | Draw 24% | Utrecht 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Waalwijk 1.32 / Utrecht 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.828 / def 1.041 | Utrecht attack 1.373 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Utrecht xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Utrecht FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Utrecht kick off?
Waalwijk vs Utrecht kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Friday 25 April 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Waalwijk 0 - 4 Utrecht.
Where is Waalwijk vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Utrecht part of?
Waalwijk vs Utrecht is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 27% chance of winning, Utrecht a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Waalwijk and Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.83x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (1.37x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 63 games and Utrecht's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
27%
3.74
24%
4.19
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.18
1.86
Utrecht xG
3.74
27%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
4%
24.02
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.86 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 11W 15D 37L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Utrecht's form line: 31W 19D 13L from 63 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Utrecht are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.03 PPG from their last 29 home games (7W 9D 13L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 13W 12D 4L from their last 29 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.75 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 63%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Utrecht
Current Season
Waalwijk (Home) vs Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Current Season
Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Waalwijk vs Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 11W 15D 37L in their last 63 games (0.76 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 31W 19D 13L in their last 63 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.03 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Waalwijk and Utrecht, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 3D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
5
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Utrecht?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 0, Utrecht have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 55%, Utrecht 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Waalwijk) and 62% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Utrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Waalwijk's games and 72% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waalwijk and Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Waalwijk's matches and 62% of Utrecht's.
Do Waalwijk and Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 79% of Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utrecht run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Waalwijk 0-4 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.32 xG and Utrecht 1.86 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Utrecht outscored their 1.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Utrecht attack 1.37 / defence 0.97, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 27% | Draw 24% | Utrecht 49%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 59%, Utrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (63 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Utrecht's trading profile (63 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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