Vitesse 2-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host Waalwijk at GelreDome in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 4W 1D 5L at GelreDome — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vitesse at 1.00 PPG versus Waalwijk's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vitesse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Vitesse have won 1, Waalwijk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 62% and Waalwijk 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 68% | Waalwijk 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.28 xG and Waalwijk 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.935 / defence 1.533 | Waalwijk attack 0.928 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.463. Data: 37 Vitesse games / 37 Waalwijk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vitesse 23% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 56%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 4.35 | Draw 4.76 | Waalwijk 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 60% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 23% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Vitesse 1.28 / Waalwijk 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.935 / def 1.533 | Waalwijk attack 0.928 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Waalwijk xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Waalwijk kick off?
Vitesse vs Waalwijk kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Vitesse 2 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Vitesse vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Waalwijk part of?
Vitesse vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 23% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 56% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vitesse and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Vitesse and Waalwijk in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.94) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
23%
4.33
21%
4.76
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.36
2.08
Waalwijk xG
4.33
23%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
12%
8.00
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
3%
34.62
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Vitesse and 2.08 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 15W 6D 16L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 9W 13D 15L from 37 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.38 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (8W 2D 8L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 3W 9D 6L from 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.16 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 15W 6D 16L in their last 37 games (1.38 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Waalwijk away?
Vitesse's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.44 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Waalwijk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vitesse's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vitesse
2
Draws
4
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Waalwijk have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2025, when Vitesse 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitesse at 61%, Waalwijk at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Vitesse and 50% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Vitesse's games and 78% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Vitesse's matches and 50% of Waalwijk's.
Do Vitesse and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at GelreDome, Regular Season - 4, as Vitesse and Waalwijk drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.28 xG and Waalwijk 2.08 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.94 / defence 1.53 against Waalwijk attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 23% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 56%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 68%, Waalwijk 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.38 PPG, Waalwijk 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.