Vitesse 1-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 42%, yet in-form Vitesse provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vitesse vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host Waalwijk at GelreDome in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 5W 2D 3L at GelreDome — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Vitesse have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vitesse have won 1, Waalwijk 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 52% and Waalwijk 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 60% | Waalwijk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.45 xG and Waalwijk 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.992 / defence 1.396 | Waalwijk attack 0.905 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.281. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Vitesse games / 26 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 34% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 42%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vitesse (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 34% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Vitesse 1.45 / Waalwijk 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.992 / def 1.396 | Waalwijk attack 0.905 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Waalwijk xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Waalwijk kick off?
Vitesse vs Waalwijk kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Vitesse 1 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Vitesse vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Waalwijk part of?
Vitesse vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 34% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vitesse and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Vitesse and Waalwijk in?
Vitesse (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.99) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.18
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.06
1.62
Waalwijk xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.72
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.62 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 12W 5D 8L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 4W 9D 12L from 25 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vitesse are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 1W 7D 4L from 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.08 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 68%.
Last 25 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 12W 5D 8L in their last 25 games (1.64 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 4W 9D 12L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Waalwijk away?
Vitesse's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.42 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Waalwijk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vitesse's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vitesse
2
Draws
4
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Waalwijk have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2025, when Vitesse 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitesse at 67%, Waalwijk at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vitesse and 50% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vitesse's games and 75% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vitesse's matches and 50% of Waalwijk's.
Do Vitesse and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Waalwijk edge out Vitesse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.45 xG and Waalwijk 1.62 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.99 / defence 1.40 against Waalwijk attack 0.91 / defence 1.32, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 34% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 42%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 60%, Waalwijk 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.