Vitesse 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Volendam make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Volendam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Vitesse against 1.10 for FC Volendam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vitesse have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Volendam in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Vitesse — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 57% and FC Volendam 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 66% | FC Volendam 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 2.74 xG and FC Volendam 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.938 / defence 1.524 | FC Volendam attack 0.806 / defence 1.760. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.371. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.760 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Vitesse games / 6 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 60% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 22%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 1.67 | Draw 5.56 | FC Volendam 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Vitesse (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.74 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.43 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 60% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 60% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 76% | xG Vitesse 2.74 / FC Volendam 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.938 / def 1.524 | FC Volendam attack 0.806 / def 1.760 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.74
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.69
FC Volendam xG
76%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs FC Volendam kick off?
Vitesse vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Vitesse 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Vitesse vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs FC Volendam part of?
Vitesse vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 60% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 22% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Vitesse and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitesse and FC Volendam in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.94x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.76x — combine the two and it projects 2.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.81x) against Vitesse's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (6.9%), 2-2 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
60%
1.67
18%
5.71
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
2 – 2
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.74
Vitesse xG
Total xG
4.43
1.69
FC Volendam xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.71
18%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.20
Clean Sheet
19%
5.39
6%
15.50
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
1%
69.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Vitesse and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.69 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 4.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitesse come into this having played 44 games, going 18W 7D 19L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.80 PPG from 44 outings (22W 13D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vitesse's home form reads 8W 4D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 1.55 points per game from 22 outings (8W 10D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.00 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 73%.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 18W 7D 19L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 22W 13D 9L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.27 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Volendam have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-0 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vitesse
2
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Vitesse, 68% for FC Volendam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Vitesse and 59% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Vitesse's games and 68% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Vitesse's matches and 59% of FC Volendam's.
Do Vitesse and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at GelreDome, Regular Season - 7, as Vitesse and FC Volendam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 2.74 xG and FC Volendam 1.69 xG, a combined 4.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.94 / defence 1.52 against FC Volendam attack 0.81 / defence 1.76, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 60% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 22%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 66%, FC Volendam 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.