Vitesse 2-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GelreDome plays host to Vitesse versus Emmen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 2W 3D 5L at GelreDome — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Vitesse against 0.60 for Emmen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 56% versus Emmen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 67% | Emmen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.94 xG and Emmen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.839 / defence 1.446 | Emmen attack 0.677 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.314. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.413 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Vitesse games / 10 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 52% | Draw 24% | Emmen 25%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Emmen 4.00. Vitesse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 52% | Draw 24% | Emmen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Vitesse 1.94 / Emmen 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.839 / def 1.446 | Emmen attack 0.677 / def 1.413 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Emmen xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Emmen kick off?
Vitesse vs Emmen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Emmen?
Vitesse 2 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Vitesse vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Emmen part of?
Vitesse vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 52% chance of winning, Emmen a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vitesse and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitesse and Emmen in?
Vitesse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Emmen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.84x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.68x) against Vitesse's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.24
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.22
1.29
Emmen xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
14%
6.93
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
4%
28.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.29 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitesse's recent record stands at 19W 8D 21L from 48 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 27W 8D 13L across 48 games — 1.85 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 8W 5D 11L from 24 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 11W 5D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.50 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Emmen in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 19W 8D 21L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Emmen have gone 27W 8D 13L in their last 48 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.21 PPG; Emmen away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Emmen in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vitesse
3
Draws
0
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 3, Emmen have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Vitesse 3-3 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Emmen?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 67%, Emmen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Vitesse) and 42% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 33%; Emmen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vitesse's games and 46% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vitesse's matches and 42% of Emmen's.
Do Vitesse and Emmen tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Emmen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitesse edge out Emmen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Emmen 2-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.94 xG and Emmen 1.29 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.84 / defence 1.45 against Emmen attack 0.68 / defence 1.41, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 52% | Draw 24% | Emmen 25%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, Emmen 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.