Twente 1-2 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Twente at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Twente vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Grolsch Veste plays host to Twente versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Twente have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Twente's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at De Grolsch Veste this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Grolsch Veste. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Twente. A 0.80 PPG lead over Fortuna Sittard (2.10 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Twente 0W, Fortuna Sittard 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Twente half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Twente 55% versus Fortuna Sittard 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Twente 45% | Fortuna Sittard 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Twente 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Twente attack 1.146 / defence 0.946 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.676 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.258. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Twente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Twente games / 31 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Twente 66% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Sittard 14%. Fair-value odds: Twente 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Fortuna Sittard 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Twente (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Twente at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Twente 30% | Fortuna Sittard 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Twente vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: De Grolsch Veste • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Twente 66% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Sittard 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG Twente 2.02 / Fortuna Sittard 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Twente attack 1.146 / def 0.946 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.676 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Twente (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Twente xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Fortuna Sittard xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Twente vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Twente vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at De Grolsch Veste.
What was the final score in Twente vs Fortuna Sittard?
Twente 1 - 2 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Twente vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at De Grolsch Veste.
What competition is Twente vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Twente vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Twente vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Twente a 66% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Twente vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Twente and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Twente vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (1 meetings): Twente 0W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are Twente and Fortuna Sittard in?
Twente (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Twente's attack rating (1.15) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.68x) against Twente's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.92
14%
7.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Twente xG
Total xG
2.82
0.81
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
7.13
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
2%
53.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Twente vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Twente and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Twente and 0.81 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Twente vs Fortuna Sittard?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Twente come into this having played 31 games, going 18W 8D 5L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 0.94 PPG from 31 outings (8W 5D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Twente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Twente's home form reads 9W 5D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.60 points per game from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Twente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Twente are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.03 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Defensively: Twente have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Twente
Current Season
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Twente and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Twente have gone 18W 8D 5L in their last 31 games (2.00 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 8W 5D 18L in their last 31 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Twente at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Twente's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Twente at home: 2.13 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Twente or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
Twente have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Twente go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Twente won 3-0 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Twente have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Twente
1
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, Twente have won 7, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Twente and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Twente.
Who has won more matches between Twente and Fortuna Sittard?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Twente 47%, Fortuna Sittard 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Twente) and 60% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Twente keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Twente home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Twente play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Twente's recent matches and 60% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Twente vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Twente's recent games and 60% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Twente and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Twente have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat Twente 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Twente 1-2 at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.81 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Twente fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fortuna Sittard outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.68 / defence 1.55, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Twente 66% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Sittard 14%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 45%, Fortuna Sittard 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Twente's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Twente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.