Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 50%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Sparta Rotterdam welcome NAC Breda to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sparta Rotterdam are significantly better at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. NAC Breda's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Sparta Rotterdam's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Rotterdam 63% and NAC Breda 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 55% | NAC Breda 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.78 xG and NAC Breda 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.840 / defence 1.268 | NAC Breda attack 0.769 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.261. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Sparta Rotterdam games / 14 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 26%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | NAC Breda 3.85. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 80% | NAC Breda 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.78 / NAC Breda 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.840 / def 1.268 | NAC Breda attack 0.769 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.23
NAC Breda xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 50% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.84x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.29
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.01
1.23
NAC Breda xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
4%
22.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.23 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 12D 21L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.57 PPG from 49 outings (22W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.22 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 6W 9D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.33 points per game from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.67 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.12 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, NAC Breda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when NAC Breda 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 67%, NAC Breda 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Sparta Rotterdam and 62% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 58% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 62% of NAC Breda's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.78 xG and NAC Breda 1.23 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.84 / defence 1.27 against NAC Breda attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 26%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 55%, NAC Breda 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.22 PPG, NAC Breda 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.