Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel plays host to Sparta Rotterdam versus Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 21 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Eredivisie outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.00 for Sparta Rotterdam, 0.00 for Heracles — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Heracles in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.28 xG and Heracles 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.973 / defence 1.150 | Heracles attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.181. Data: 1 Sparta Rotterdam games / 1 Heracles games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 39% | Draw 27% | Heracles 33%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Heracles 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 39% | Draw 27% | Heracles 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.28 / Heracles 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.973 / def 1.150 | Heracles attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Heracles xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 Heracles.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 39% chance of winning, Heracles a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L. Heracles (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.97x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (0.85x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.65
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.43
1.16
Heracles xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.16 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Sparta Rotterdam against 0.00 for Heracles. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Heracles in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Heracles have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heracles won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sparta Rotterdam
3
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 3, Heracles have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 0% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 0% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Heracles in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles finished level at 1-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.28 xG and Heracles 1.16 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Heracles attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 39% | Draw 27% | Heracles 33%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 100%, Heracles 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 0.00 PPG, Heracles 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sparta Rotterdam scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.