Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam host Fortuna Sittard at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 6W 2D 2L at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sparta Rotterdam at 1.60 PPG versus Fortuna Sittard's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 for Fortuna Sittard and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fortuna Sittard in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 47% versus Fortuna Sittard 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 47% | Fortuna Sittard 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.77 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.104 / defence 0.843 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.934 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.336. Data: 45 Sparta Rotterdam games / 45 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 54% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 22%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Sittard 4.55. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Fortuna Sittard 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 54% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.77 / Fortuna Sittard 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.104 / def 0.843 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.934 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fortuna Sittard xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Sparta Rotterdam 3 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 54% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (2 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
54%
1.87
25%
4.08
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.82
1.05
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
26.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.05 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 13D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 1.04 PPG from 45 outings (13W 8D 24L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.16 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (5W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.11 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 13W 8D 24L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.36 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sparta Rotterdam
4
Draws
1
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 50%, Fortuna Sittard 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 59% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 64% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 59% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Fortuna Sittard 3-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.77 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.05 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.10 / defence 0.84 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 54% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 22%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 47%, Fortuna Sittard 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.16 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.