Sparta Rotterdam 4-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel plays host to Sparta Rotterdam versus Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Cambuur's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sparta Rotterdam's 1.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 1W, Cambuur 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2023, ended 3–0 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 46% versus Cambuur 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Cambuur 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.96 xG and Cambuur 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.976 / defence 0.916 | Cambuur attack 0.663 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.246. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Sparta Rotterdam games / 66 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 64% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 12%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Cambuur 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 64% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.96 / Cambuur 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.976 / def 0.916 | Cambuur attack 0.663 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cambuur xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur?
Sparta Rotterdam 4 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 64% chance of winning, Cambuur a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 1W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.98x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.66x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
64%
1.56
24%
4.17
12%
8.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.72
0.76
Cambuur xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
8.41
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
2%
59.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.76 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 66 games, going 23W 19D 24L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.83 PPG from 66 outings (15W 10D 41L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Sparta Rotterdam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 13W 9D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 0.94 points per game from 33 outings (8W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.12 scored and 2.05 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 23W 19D 24L in their last 66 games (1.33 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 41L in their last 66 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Cambuur away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.45 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cambuur in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Rotterdam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-4 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, Cambuur have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Sparta Rotterdam 4-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 52%, Cambuur 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 58% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 27% of games; Cambuur in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 46% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 58% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Rotterdam run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Cambuur 4-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.96 xG and Cambuur 0.76 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Cambuur attack 0.66 / defence 1.24, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 64% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 12%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 50%, Cambuur 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambuur's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.