PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as PSV Eindhoven welcome Excelsior to Philips Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's home record at Philips Stadion: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Philips Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 0 for Excelsior and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 4–0 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 50% versus Excelsior 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 76% | Excelsior 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.97 xG and Excelsior 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.429 / defence 0.681 | Excelsior attack 1.013 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.547. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — their λ of 2.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PSV Eindhoven's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 PSV Eindhoven games / 50 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 16% | Excelsior 9%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Excelsior 11.11. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.97 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 50% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 16% | Excelsior 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 63% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.97 / Excelsior 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.429 / def 0.681 | Excelsior attack 1.013 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.97
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Excelsior xG
63%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior?
PSV Eindhoven 3 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 75% chance of winning, Excelsior a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Excelsior?
Record (2 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 2W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Excelsior in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Excelsior (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PSV Eindhoven's attack rating (1.43) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus PSV Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
75%
1.34
16%
6.26
9%
10.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.97
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.03
1.07
Excelsior xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.26
16%
Draw
10.65
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
5%
19.41
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.97 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.07 for Excelsior, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.46 PPG on a 39W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior's form line: 12W 13D 25L from 50 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior.
Venue Form
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.72 PPG from 25 outings (22W 2D 1L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 3W 6D 16L from 25 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.90 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.18 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Excelsior in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 39W 6D 5L in their last 50 games (2.46 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 12W 13D 25L in their last 50 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Excelsior away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.72 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.60 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Excelsior in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PSV Eindhoven's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
0
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 6, Excelsior have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Excelsior?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 44%, Excelsior 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for PSV Eindhoven and 64% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Excelsior in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 48% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 64% of Excelsior's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Excelsior tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Excelsior 3-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.97 xG and Excelsior 1.07 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.43 / defence 0.68 against Excelsior attack 1.01 / defence 1.24, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 16% | Excelsior 9%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 76%, Excelsior 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Excelsior's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.