NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host Sparta Rotterdam at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's home record at Goffertstadion: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Sparta Rotterdam's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of NEC Nijmegen's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 52% versus Sparta Rotterdam 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 38% | Sparta Rotterdam 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.32 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.201 / defence 1.026 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.142 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.175. Sparta Rotterdam's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 NEC Nijmegen games / 52 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 34% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 36%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 80% | Sparta Rotterdam 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 34% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.32 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.201 / def 1.026 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.142 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sparta Rotterdam xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 34% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (3 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 2 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.20x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
34%
2.95
30%
3.37
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.69
1.38
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.38 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 14W 18D 20L from 52 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 19L across 52 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.15 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 4W 11D 10L from 25 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.13 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 14W 18D 20L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 17W 16D 19L in their last 52 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Sparta Rotterdam's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.92 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.12 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
6
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 56%, Sparta Rotterdam 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (NEC Nijmegen) and 56% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 36%; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 36% of games; Sparta Rotterdam in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 36% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 56% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam finished level at 1-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.32 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.38 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.20 / defence 1.03 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.14 / defence 0.78, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 34% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 36%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 38%, Sparta Rotterdam 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.15 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.