NEC Nijmegen 3-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Groningen travel to Goffertstadion to take on NEC Nijmegen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1W 1D 2L at Goffertstadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goffertstadion.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEC Nijmegen at 1.40 PPG versus Groningen's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Groningen trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 40% versus Groningen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 50% | Groningen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.06 xG and Groningen 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.604 / defence 1.081 | Groningen attack 0.781 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.355. NEC Nijmegen's attack strength of 0.604 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 NEC Nijmegen games / 10 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 33% | Draw 29% | Groningen 38%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Groningen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 0% | Groningen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 33% | Draw 29% | Groningen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.06 / Groningen 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.604 / def 1.081 | Groningen attack 0.781 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Groningen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Groningen xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen 3 - 0 Groningen.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 33% chance of winning, Groningen a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Groningen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.44
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.21
1.14
Groningen xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.14 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.40 PPG, Groningen on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Groningen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Groningen have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Groningen away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.00 PPG; Groningen away: 0.25 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Groningen in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, Groningen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Groningen 2-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 0%, Groningen 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (NEC Nijmegen) and 75% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 75% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 75% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Groningen tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Groningen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Groningen 3-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.06 xG and Groningen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Groningen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.60 / defence 1.08 against Groningen attack 0.78 / defence 1.31, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 33% | Draw 29% | Groningen 38%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual NEC Nijmegen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 50%, Groningen 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Groningen's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.40 PPG, Groningen 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.