NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Feyenoord (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as NEC Nijmegen face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Goffertstadion, NEC Nijmegen have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Feyenoord (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Feyenoord's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Feyenoord are 0.60 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.60 vs 2.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 58% versus Feyenoord 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 54% | Feyenoord 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.16 xG and Feyenoord 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.034 / defence 0.947 | Feyenoord attack 1.179 / defence 0.659. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.458. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.659 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 NEC Nijmegen games / 66 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 25% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 47%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Feyenoord 2.13. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Feyenoord 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 25% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.16 / Feyenoord 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.034 / def 0.947 | Feyenoord attack 1.179 / def 0.659 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Feyenoord xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 3 Feyenoord.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 25% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord?
Record (5 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 2 | Feyenoord 3W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.18x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
25%
3.96
28%
3.55
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.78
1.63
Feyenoord xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
5%
20.21
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.63 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 21W 26D 19L from 66 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 49W 13D 4L across 66 games — 2.42 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NEC Nijmegen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 11W 13D 9L from 33 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 25W 6D 2L across 33 trips, a 2.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.52 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
Feyenoord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 21W 26D 19L in their last 66 games (1.35 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 49W 13D 4L in their last 66 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.39 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.45 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 1-4 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
5
Draws
4
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Feyenoord have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for NEC Nijmegen, 64% for Feyenoord — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for NEC Nijmegen and 67% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 64% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out NEC Nijmegen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat NEC Nijmegen 2-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.16 xG and Feyenoord 1.63 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Feyenoord outscored their 1.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Feyenoord attack 1.18 / defence 0.66, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 25% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 47%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 54%, Feyenoord 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.