NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as NEC Nijmegen welcome Ajax to Goffertstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 January 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen at Goffertstadion this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajax — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ajax's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of NEC Nijmegen's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NEC Nijmegen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ajax in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen have won 0, Ajax 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ajax in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 52% versus Ajax 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 40% | Ajax 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.86 xG and Ajax 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.136 / defence 1.015 | Ajax attack 1.391 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.319. Ajax have an above-average attack strength of 1.391 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 NEC Nijmegen games / 48 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 38% | Draw 24% | Ajax 38%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Ajax 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 38% | Draw 24% | Ajax 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.86 / Ajax 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.136 / def 1.015 | Ajax attack 1.391 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Ajax xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Ajax.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 38% chance of winning, Ajax a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Ajax?
Record (2 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 0 | Ajax 2W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Ajax in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Ajax (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.14) and Ajax's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
38%
2.63
24%
4.20
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.72
1.86
Ajax xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
6%
16.92
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.86 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 16D 19L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 2.35 PPG from 48 outings (35W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 4W 10D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 2.33 points per game from 24 outings (17W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.96 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Ajax in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Ajax in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Ajax have gone 35W 8D 5L in their last 48 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.92 PPG; Ajax away: 2.33 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Ajax in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Ajax runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Ajax won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
4
Draws
5
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Ajax have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 50%, Ajax 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (NEC Nijmegen) and 58% (Ajax).
On the defensive side: Ajax in 50%; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 50% of Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 58% of Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Ajax tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Ajax in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Ajax finished level at 1-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.86 xG and Ajax 1.86 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ajax landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.14 / defence 1.01 against Ajax attack 1.39 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 38% | Draw 24% | Ajax 38%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 40%, Ajax 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.