NAC Breda 1-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host MVV at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. MVV haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
MVV's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.40 (MVV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 3, MVV 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 4–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
MVV in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 47% versus MVV 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 55% | MVV 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.65 xG and MVV 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | MVV attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.290. Data: 0 NAC Breda games / 0 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 45% | Draw 28% | MVV 28%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | MVV 3.57. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | MVV 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs MVV | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 45% | Draw 28% | MVV 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG NAC Breda 1.65 / MVV 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | MVV attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.26
MVV xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs MVV kick off?
NAC Breda vs MVV kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 23 May 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs MVV?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 MVV.
Where is NAC Breda vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs MVV part of?
NAC Breda vs MVV is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 45% chance of winning, MVV a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both NAC Breda and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and MVV?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 3W | Draws 0 | MVV 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and MVV in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against MVV's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.59
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.91
1.26
MVV xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
5%
18.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.26 for MVV, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 9D 13L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. NAC Breda haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, MVV sit at 1.05 PPG from 38 outings (12W 4D 22L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. MVV haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of MVV — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, MVV have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (7W 1D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.13 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Pre-Season
MVV
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and MVV in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 16W 9D 13L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while MVV have gone 12W 4D 22L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or MVV away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.89 PPG; MVV away: 1.16 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, MVV in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and MVV runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when NAC Breda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting MVV specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
NAC Breda
0
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and MVV?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 6, MVV have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when NAC Breda 1-2 MVV.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and MVV?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 47%, MVV 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (NAC Breda) and 63% (MVV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; MVV in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 53% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of NAC Breda's matches and 63% of MVV's.
Do NAC Breda and MVV tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, MVV in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out MVV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat MVV 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.65 xG and MVV 1.26 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. MVV landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against MVV attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 45% | Draw 28% | MVV 28%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 55%, MVV 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
MVV's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.