Heracles 0-2 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 51% as Heracles take on PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host PSV Eindhoven at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 0.36 xG and PSV Eindhoven 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | PSV Eindhoven attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.364 / away 0.506. Data: 0 Heracles games / 0 PSV Eindhoven games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Heracles 20% | Draw 51% | PSV Eindhoven 30%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 5.00 | Draw 1.96 | PSV Eindhoven 3.33. The draw (51%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 5% | BTTS probability 12% | Total xG 0.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 95% probability — total xG of 0.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 88% — Heracles's lower xG of 0.36 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 12%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 51% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 20% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 0.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 5% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 20% | Draw 51% | PSV Eindhoven 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 5% | BTTS 12% | xG Heracles 0.36 / PSV Eindhoven 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | PSV Eindhoven attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.364 / away 0.506 • Poisson stance: Draw (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.36
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
0.49
PSV Eindhoven xG
12%
BTTS
21%
Over 1.5
5%
Over 2.5
1%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Heracles 0 - 2 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 20% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 30% chance, and a 51% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 12% probability that both Heracles and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 5%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.85) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 0.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 43.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (20.2%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 78% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
20%
5.05
51%
1.98
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
42.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
21.1%
Away win
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.36
Heracles xG
Total xG
0.85
0.49
PSV Eindhoven xG
5.05
20%
Home win
1.98
51%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
21%
Over 1.5
4.76
79%
Under 1.5
1.27
5%
Over 2.5
20.00
95%
Under 2.5
1.05
1%
Over 3.5
100.00
99%
Under 3.5
1.01
0%
Over 4.5
–
100%
Under 4.5
1.00
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
12%
BTTS Yes
8.56
88%
BTTS No
1.13
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
70%
1.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42.7 | 21.1 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 43.7%.
How many goals are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.36 expected goals for Heracles and 0.49 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 0.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Pre-Season
PSV Eindhoven
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
0
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Heracles 1-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles 0-2 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 0.36 xG and PSV Eindhoven 0.49 xG, a combined 0.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 0.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against PSV Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 20% | Draw 51% | PSV Eindhoven 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 51%. The actual PSV Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 5%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 21% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 12% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.