Heerenveen 2-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heerenveen vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Heerenveen welcome Willem II to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's home record at Abe Lenstra Stadion: 2W 0D 4L from 6 Eredivisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Willem II have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heerenveen register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Willem II in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Willem II trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heerenveen 67% and Willem II 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 50% | Willem II 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.45 xG and Willem II 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.850 / defence 1.400 | Willem II attack 0.929 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.332. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Heerenveen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Heerenveen games / 12 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 32% | Draw 23% | Willem II 44%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 67% | Willem II 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 32% | Draw 23% | Willem II 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Heerenveen 1.45 / Willem II 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.850 / def 1.400 | Willem II attack 0.929 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Willem II (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Willem II xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Willem II kick off?
Heerenveen vs Willem II kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Heerenveen 2 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Heerenveen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Willem II part of?
Heerenveen vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 32% chance of winning, Willem II a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Heerenveen and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heerenveen and Willem II in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Heerenveen's attack at 0.85x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
32%
3.09
23%
4.30
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
3.19
1.73
Willem II xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
6%
17.48
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.73 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 4W 2D 6L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 1.17 PPG, Willem II on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Heerenveen have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Heerenveen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.25 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Willem II in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Willem II have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.00 PPG; Willem II away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heerenveen and Willem II runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Heerenveen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Heerenveen's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
1
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, Willem II have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Heerenveen 3-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Willem II?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heerenveen at 67%, Willem II at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Heerenveen and 67% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Heerenveen's games and 67% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heerenveen's matches and 67% of Willem II's.
Do Heerenveen and Willem II tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Willem II in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heerenveen defy the odds to beat Willem II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Willem II 2-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.45 xG and Willem II 1.73 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.85 / defence 1.40 against Willem II attack 0.93 / defence 1.33, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 32% | Draw 23% | Willem II 44%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 50%, Willem II 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.17 PPG, Willem II 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.