Heerenveen 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Abe Lenstra Stadion plays host to Heerenveen versus Sparta Rotterdam in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 5 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heerenveen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Heerenveen haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Heerenveen's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Abe Lenstra Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sparta Rotterdam (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sparta Rotterdam haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Heerenveen, 1.50 for Sparta Rotterdam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Heerenveen, 0 for Sparta Rotterdam and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Heerenveen — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 56% versus Sparta Rotterdam 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 50% | Sparta Rotterdam 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.59 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.048 / defence 1.042 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.938 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.272. Data: 34 Heerenveen games / 34 Sparta Rotterdam games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 45% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 30%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 3.33. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heerenveen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Heerenveen 50% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 45% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Heerenveen 1.59 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.048 / def 1.042 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.938 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sparta Rotterdam xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Heerenveen 0 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 45% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (2 meetings): Heerenveen 0W | Draws 2 | Sparta Rotterdam 0W.
What form are Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Heerenveen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Heerenveen's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (0.94x) against Heerenveen's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
45%
2.20
25%
4.05
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.83
1.24
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
6%
16.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.24 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 10W 8D 16L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. Heerenveen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 8W 11D 15L from 34 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. Sparta Rotterdam haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Heerenveen against 1.03 for Sparta Rotterdam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Heerenveen have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 4D 9L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Heerenveen are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.88 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Pre-Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.24 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Heerenveen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heerenveen have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
3
Draws
4
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Heerenveen 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 59%, Sparta Rotterdam 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Heerenveen) and 53% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen have failed to score in 29% of games; Sparta Rotterdam in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 41% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Heerenveen's matches and 53% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Heerenveen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.59 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Heerenveen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 45% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 30%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 50%, Sparta Rotterdam 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.12 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.