Heerenveen 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Abe Lenstra Stadion plays host to Heerenveen versus Sparta Rotterdam in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heerenveen have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 games at Abe Lenstra Stadion this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Heerenveen's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Heerenveen — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 67% versus Sparta Rotterdam 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 47% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.37 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.884 / defence 1.223 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.739 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.340. Sparta Rotterdam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Heerenveen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Heerenveen games / 15 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 41% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 33%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Rotterdam 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heerenveen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 75% | Sparta Rotterdam 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 41% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Heerenveen 1.37 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.884 / def 1.223 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.739 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sparta Rotterdam xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Heerenveen 0 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 41% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Heerenveen's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (0.74x) against Heerenveen's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.79
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.58
1.21
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.21 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 6W 3D 6L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 2W 4D 9L from 15 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Heerenveen are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Heerenveen have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heerenveen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heerenveen are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 4D 9L in their last 15 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.00 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Heerenveen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heerenveen have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
3
Draws
4
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Heerenveen 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 71%, Sparta Rotterdam 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Heerenveen) and 57% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Sparta Rotterdam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Heerenveen's games and 43% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Heerenveen's matches and 57% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Heerenveen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.37 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Heerenveen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.88 / defence 1.22 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.74 / defence 1.28, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 41% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 33%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 47%, Sparta Rotterdam 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.