Heerenveen 0-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as Heerenveen welcome NEC Nijmegen to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heerenveen have posted 2W 2D 6L at Abe Lenstra Stadion — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heerenveen at 1.20 PPG versus NEC Nijmegen's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Heerenveen, 0 for NEC Nijmegen and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 52% versus NEC Nijmegen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 43% | NEC Nijmegen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 0.87 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.685 / defence 1.164 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.871 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.402. Heerenveen's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Heerenveen games / 21 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 23% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 50%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | NEC Nijmegen 2.00. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Heerenveen 50% | NEC Nijmegen 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 23% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Heerenveen 0.87 / NEC Nijmegen 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.685 / def 1.164 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.871 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.42
NEC Nijmegen xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Heerenveen 0 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 23% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (1 meetings): Heerenveen 0W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 0W.
What form are Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heerenveen's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
23%
4.32
27%
3.70
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.29
1.42
NEC Nijmegen xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
6%
17.90
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.3 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.42 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heerenveen's recent record stands at 7W 4D 10L from 21 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 8L across 21 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 1.19 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heerenveen have managed 3W 2D 6L from 11 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 5W 3D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.24 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.00 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Heerenveen or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heerenveen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
4
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Heerenveen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 54%, NEC Nijmegen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Heerenveen) and 46% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Heerenveen have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Heerenveen's games and 64% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Heerenveen's recent games and 46% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out Heerenveen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Heerenveen 0-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 0.87 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.42 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Heerenveen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.69 / defence 1.16 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 23% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 50%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 43%, NEC Nijmegen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.19 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.