Groningen 1-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Utrecht travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 April 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Euroborg this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Utrecht are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Groningen, 1 for Utrecht and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Utrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Utrecht in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 59% versus Utrecht 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 52% | Utrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.43 xG and Utrecht 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.799 / defence 1.155 | Utrecht attack 1.312 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.316. Groningen's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Utrecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Groningen games / 61 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 26% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 49%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Utrecht 2.04. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | Utrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 26% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Groningen 1.43 / Utrecht 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.799 / def 1.155 | Utrecht attack 1.312 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Utrecht xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Utrecht kick off?
Groningen vs Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Utrecht?
Groningen 1 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is Groningen vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Utrecht part of?
Groningen vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 26% chance of winning, Utrecht a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Groningen and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Utrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 1W.
What form are Groningen and Utrecht in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.80x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
26%
3.86
25%
4.00
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
2 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.42
1.99
Utrecht xG
3.86
26%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
14%
7.34
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
4%
28.31
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Groningen and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Groningen and 1.99 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Groningen have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 13W 14D 34L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht's form line: 22W 19D 20L from 61 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Utrecht are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.00 PPG from 30 outings (7W 9D 14L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 9W 8D 13L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.51 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 13W 14D 34L in their last 61 games (0.87 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 22W 19D 20L in their last 61 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.00 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and Utrecht runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Groningen's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
5
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, Utrecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Groningen 1-2 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 57%, Utrecht 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Groningen) and 70% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Groningen's games and 60% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Groningen's matches and 70% of Utrecht's.
Do Groningen and Utrecht tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Groningen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Groningen 1-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.43 xG and Utrecht 1.99 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against Utrecht attack 1.31 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 26% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 49%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 52%, Utrecht 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.