Groningen 3-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and FC Volendam meet at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 December 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Groningen (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Volendam have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Groningen against 1.00 for FC Volendam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Groningen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Volendam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Groningen, 1 for FC Volendam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 2–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 51% versus FC Volendam 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 49% | FC Volendam 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.88 xG and FC Volendam 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.899 / defence 0.912 | FC Volendam attack 0.637 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.421. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Groningen games / 15 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 62% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 16%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | FC Volendam 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Groningen 60% | FC Volendam 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 62% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Groningen 1.88 / FC Volendam 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.899 / def 0.912 | FC Volendam attack 0.637 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Groningen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.82
FC Volendam xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs FC Volendam kick off?
Groningen vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs FC Volendam?
Groningen 3 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Groningen vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs FC Volendam part of?
Groningen vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 62% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Groningen and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Groningen and FC Volendam in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.90) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.64x) against Groningen's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.57
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.70
0.82
FC Volendam xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
2%
41.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Groningen and 0.82 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Groningen's recent record stands at 17W 11D 21L from 49 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 12L across 49 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 11W 8D 5L from 24 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Groningen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 11W 6D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 28W 9D 12L in their last 49 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or FC Volendam away?
Groningen's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.71 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Groningen
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when FC Volendam 3-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 46%, FC Volendam 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Groningen) and 71% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Groningen's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Groningen's matches and 71% of FC Volendam's.
Do Groningen and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat FC Volendam 3-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.88 xG and FC Volendam 0.82 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.90 / defence 0.91 against FC Volendam attack 0.64 / defence 1.22, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 62% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 16%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 49%, FC Volendam 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.