Groningen 2-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have gone 1W 4D 4L from 9 outings — a 0.78 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 0W 3D 1L at Euroborg — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 4W 0D 4L from 8 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.38 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 0.72 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.78), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 62% and AZ Alkmaar 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 38% | AZ Alkmaar 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.15 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.658 / defence 0.968 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.020 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.387. Groningen's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AZ Alkmaar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Groningen games / 8 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 31% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 42%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | AZ Alkmaar 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 50% | AZ Alkmaar 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 31% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Groningen 1.15 / AZ Alkmaar 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.658 / def 0.968 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.020 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.37
AZ Alkmaar xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Groningen 2 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 31% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Groningen and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-0D-4L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.38 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.66x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.75
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.52
1.37
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
8%
12.48
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Groningen and 1.37 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 8 games, going 0W 4D 4L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 0W 3D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 4W 0D 4L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.75 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
5
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Groningen at 50%, AZ Alkmaar at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Groningen) and 100% (AZ Alkmaar).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Groningen's games and 100% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Groningen's recent games and 100% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat AZ Alkmaar 2-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.15 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.37 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.66 / defence 0.97 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.02 / defence 1.31, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 31% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 42%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 38%, AZ Alkmaar 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.