GO Ahead Eagles 1-4 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles host AZ Alkmaar at De Adelaarshorst in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 25 January 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
GO Ahead Eagles — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GO Ahead Eagles at De Adelaarshorst this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Adelaarshorst this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (GO Ahead Eagles) versus 1.90 (AZ Alkmaar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. GO Ahead Eagles register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AZ Alkmaar in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AZ Alkmaar have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for GO Ahead Eagles.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
GO Ahead Eagles in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GO Ahead Eagles 50% and AZ Alkmaar 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 44% | AZ Alkmaar 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 1.28 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.075 / defence 1.166 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.267 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.198. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 GO Ahead Eagles games / 51 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 26% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 47%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | AZ Alkmaar 2.13. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 60% | AZ Alkmaar 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Jan 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 26% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 1.28 / AZ Alkmaar 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.075 / def 1.166 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.267 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.77
AZ Alkmaar xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 25 January 2023 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
GO Ahead Eagles 1 - 4 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 26% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (3 meetings): GO Ahead Eagles 0W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 3W.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GO Ahead Eagles's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against AZ Alkmaar's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
26%
3.89
27%
3.65
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
3.05
1.77
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
17%
5.87
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
4%
22.85
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.77 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, GO Ahead Eagles have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 14W 13D 23L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 30W 10D 10L from 50 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GO Ahead Eagles.
Venue Form
On home soil, GO Ahead Eagles have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 13W 4D 7L from 24 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 74%.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 14W 13D 23L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 30W 10D 10L in their last 50 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.21 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when AZ Alkmaar won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GO Ahead Eagles
3
Draws
7
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles 0-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 58%, AZ Alkmaar 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for GO Ahead Eagles and 71% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 71% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 71% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 1-4 hammering of GO Ahead Eagles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat GO Ahead Eagles 1-4 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.28 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.77 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.07 / defence 1.17 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 26% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 47%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 44%, AZ Alkmaar 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.