Feyenoord 1-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (72%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Feyenoord face Waalwijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Feijenoord plays host to Feyenoord versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie (matchday 22). Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Feyenoord's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waalwijk's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waalwijk away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Feyenoord. A 1.40 PPG lead over Waalwijk (2.30 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Feyenoord, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Waalwijk — Waalwijk have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Feyenoord 2–1 Waalwijk — a Feyenoord win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Feyenoord and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 58% versus Waalwijk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 64% | Waalwijk 64%). Note also that Waalwijk surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Feyenoord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.31 xG and Waalwijk 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.236 / defence 0.698 | Waalwijk attack 0.696 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.441. Waalwijk's attack rating of 0.696 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Feyenoord have a tight defence (rating 0.698), which is pulling Waalwijk's projected output down. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 55 games and Waalwijk's last 55.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 72% | Draw 19% | Waalwijk 8%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.38 | Draw 5.15 | Waalwijk 12.06. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (72%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 60% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 72% | Draw 19% | Waalwijk 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Feyenoord 2.31 / Waalwijk 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.236 / def 0.698 | Waalwijk attack 0.696 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Waalwijk xG
47%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs Waalwijk FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs Waalwijk kick off?
Feyenoord vs Waalwijk kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Feyenoord 1 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk part of?
Feyenoord vs Waalwijk is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 72% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 8% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Feyenoord and Waalwijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Feyenoord vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.24x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.70x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 55 games and Waalwijk's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
72%
1.38
19%
5.15
8%
12.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.01
0.70
Waalwijk xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
12.06
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
10%
10.07
Win to Nil
36%
2.79
1%
121.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs Waalwijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.70 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 40W 11D 4L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Waalwijk's form line: 16W 11D 28L from 55 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.33 PPG from their last 27 home games (19W 6D 2L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 4W 6D 17L from their last 27 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Waalwijk's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.27 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs Waalwijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs Waalwijk Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 40W 11D 4L in their last 55 games (2.38 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 16W 11D 28L in their last 55 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Waalwijk away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.33 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 14 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the most recent 7 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won Feyenoord 5-1 Waalwijk on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
1
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs Waalwijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 7, Waalwijk have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Waalwijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 May 2025: Feyenoord 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 52%, Waalwijk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Feyenoord) and 59% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Waalwijk in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs Waalwijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and Waalwijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 48% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feyenoord and Waalwijk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Feyenoord's matches and 59% of Waalwijk's.
Do Feyenoord and Waalwijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 67% of Waalwijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Waalwijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Waalwijk 1-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.31 xG and Waalwijk 0.70 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Feyenoord fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.24 / defence 0.70 against Waalwijk attack 0.70 / defence 1.19, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 72% | Draw 19% | Waalwijk 8%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 64%, Waalwijk 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Waalwijk's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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