Feyenoord 0-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Vitesse at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — All Games: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord at Stadion Feijenoord this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Vitesse's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Feyenoord register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Vitesse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Feyenoord have won 1, Vitesse 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 5–2 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Vitesse in-play tendencies (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 58% versus Vitesse 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 64% | Vitesse 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.09 xG and Vitesse 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.266 / defence 0.747 | Vitesse attack 0.924 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.290. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Feyenoord games / 67 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 64% | Draw 23% | Vitesse 13%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Vitesse 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 70% | Vitesse 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 64% | Draw 23% | Vitesse 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Feyenoord 2.09 / Vitesse 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.266 / def 0.747 | Vitesse attack 0.924 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Vitesse xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Vitesse kick off?
Feyenoord vs Vitesse kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Vitesse?
Feyenoord 0 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Feyenoord vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Vitesse part of?
Feyenoord vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 64% chance of winning, Vitesse a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Feyenoord and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): Feyenoord 1W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 2W.
What form are Feyenoord and Vitesse in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Vitesse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
64%
1.57
23%
4.36
13%
7.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.98
0.89
Vitesse xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
7.44
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
2%
60.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.89 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feyenoord come into this having played 67 games, going 47W 12D 8L for 2.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.31 PPG from 67 outings (24W 16D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Feyenoord's home form reads 22W 7D 3L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 1.25 points per game from 32 outings (11W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.34 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 47W 12D 8L in their last 67 games (2.28 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 24W 16D 27L in their last 67 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Vitesse away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.28 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Vitesse in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Feyenoord
0
Draws
3
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 3, Vitesse have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Vitesse 1-2 Feyenoord.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 53%, Vitesse 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Feyenoord) and 56% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Vitesse in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 53% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Feyenoord's matches and 56% of Vitesse's.
Do Feyenoord and Vitesse tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat Feyenoord 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Feyenoord 0-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.09 xG and Vitesse 0.89 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Feyenoord fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.27 / defence 0.75 against Vitesse attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 64% | Draw 23% | Vitesse 13%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 64%, Vitesse 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitesse's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.