Feyenoord 4-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle meet at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 4W 1D 0L from 5 Eredivisie appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PEC Zwolle (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 0W 0D 6L from 6 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Feyenoord's favour (2.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 54% versus PEC Zwolle 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 73% | PEC Zwolle 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.29 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.250 / defence 1.108 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.688 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.332. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.431 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Feyenoord games / 12 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 66% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 15%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | PEC Zwolle 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 60% | PEC Zwolle 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 66% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Feyenoord 2.29 / PEC Zwolle 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.250 / def 1.108 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.688 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.01
PEC Zwolle xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Feyenoord 4 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 66% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.69x) against Feyenoord's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.36
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.30
1.01
PEC Zwolle xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
10%
9.86
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
2%
64.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.01 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord come into this having played 11 games, going 8W 1D 2L for 2.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 0.36 PPG from 11 outings (1W 1D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.91 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Feyenoord's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.00 points per game from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.64 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 8W 1D 2L in their last 11 games (2.27 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 9L in their last 11 (0.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.60 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 8, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 0-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 60%, PEC Zwolle 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Feyenoord and 60% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Feyenoord's games and 60% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Feyenoord's matches and 60% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 4-0 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat PEC Zwolle 4-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.29 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.01 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PEC Zwolle landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.25 / defence 1.11 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.69 / defence 1.43, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 66% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 15%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 73%, PEC Zwolle 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 0.36. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.