Feyenoord 0-0 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Heerenveen travel to Stadion Feijenoord to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Feijenoord this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Feijenoord this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heerenveen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heerenveen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heerenveen have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Feyenoord are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Feyenoord, 0 for Heerenveen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Heerenveen trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 57% versus Heerenveen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 69% | Heerenveen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.71 xG and Heerenveen 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.106 / defence 0.942 | Heerenveen attack 0.868 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.386. Data: 35 Feyenoord games / 35 Heerenveen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 50% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 25%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Heerenveen 4.00. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 50% | Heerenveen 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 50% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Feyenoord 1.71 / Heerenveen 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.106 / def 0.942 | Heerenveen attack 0.868 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Heerenveen xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Heerenveen kick off?
Feyenoord vs Heerenveen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Feyenoord 0 - 0 Heerenveen.
Where is Feyenoord vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Heerenveen part of?
Feyenoord vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 50% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Feyenoord and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Heerenveen?
Record (2 meetings): Feyenoord 2W | Draws 0 | Heerenveen 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Heerenveen in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.11x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
50%
1.98
25%
4.03
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.84
1.13
Heerenveen xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
4%
22.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.13 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 23W 5D 7L from 35 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 16L across 35 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Heerenveen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heerenveen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 11W 3D 3L from 17 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.03 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
Heerenveen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 23W 5D 7L in their last 35 games (2.11 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 10W 9D 16L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Heerenveen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.12 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Heerenveen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Heerenveen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Heerenveen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Feyenoord won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
2
Draws
1
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Heerenveen?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Heerenveen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Heerenveen 2-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Heerenveen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Heerenveen see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 53%, Heerenveen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Feyenoord) and 41% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Heerenveen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 53% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Feyenoord's recent games and 41% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feyenoord and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Feyenoord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 2, as Feyenoord and Heerenveen drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.71 xG and Heerenveen 1.13 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Heerenveen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.11 / defence 0.94 against Heerenveen attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 50% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 25%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 69%, Heerenveen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Heerenveen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.