Feyenoord 3-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Feyenoord at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees FC Volendam travel to Stadion Feijenoord to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Thursday 7 December 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Feyenoord have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stadion Feijenoord — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Feyenoord have won 2, FC Volendam 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Feyenoord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Volendam trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 60% and FC Volendam 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 65% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.96 xG and FC Volendam 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.399 / defence 0.726 | FC Volendam attack 0.817 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.501. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — their λ of 2.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Feyenoord games / 48 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 78% | Draw 15% | FC Volendam 7%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | FC Volendam 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 50% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 78% | Draw 15% | FC Volendam 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 57% | xG Feyenoord 2.96 / FC Volendam 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.399 / def 0.726 | FC Volendam attack 0.817 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Volendam xG
57%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs FC Volendam kick off?
Feyenoord vs FC Volendam kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Feyenoord 3 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam part of?
Feyenoord vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 78% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Feyenoord and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): Feyenoord 2W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and FC Volendam in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.40) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.80
7%
13.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.85
0.89
FC Volendam xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.80
15%
Draw
13.91
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
5%
19.34
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.89 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 35W 9D 4L from 48 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 28L across 48 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 17W 5D 2L from 24 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 1W 6D 17L across 24 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.19 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 62%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 35W 9D 4L in their last 48 games (2.38 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 12W 8D 28L in their last 48 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or FC Volendam away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.33 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
2
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 4, FC Volendam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when FC Volendam 0-0 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 50%, FC Volendam 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Feyenoord and 71% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; FC Volendam in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 58% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Feyenoord's matches and 71% of FC Volendam's.
Do Feyenoord and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat FC Volendam 3-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.96 xG and FC Volendam 0.89 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.40 / defence 0.73 against FC Volendam attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 78% | Draw 15% | FC Volendam 7%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.