Feyenoord 1-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Cambuur at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
Cambuur — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Feyenoord, 0 for Cambuur and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 3–1 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 54% versus Cambuur 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 63% | Cambuur 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.96 xG and Cambuur 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.124 / defence 0.703 | Cambuur attack 0.876 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.322. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Feyenoord games / 46 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 64% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 15%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Cambuur 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 50% | Cambuur 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 64% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 48% | xG Feyenoord 1.96 / Cambuur 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.124 / def 0.703 | Cambuur attack 0.876 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cambuur xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Cambuur kick off?
Feyenoord vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Feyenoord 1 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Feyenoord vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Cambuur part of?
Feyenoord vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 64% chance of winning, Cambuur a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Feyenoord and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): Feyenoord 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Cambuur in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.69
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.78
0.81
Cambuur xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
2%
49.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.81 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 30W 8D 8L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 13W 8D 25L from 46 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
Venue Form
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.14 PPG from 22 outings (14W 5D 3L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 7W 5D 10L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.33 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 30W 8D 8L in their last 46 games (2.13 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 13W 8D 25L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Cambuur away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.14 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cambuur in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 4, Cambuur have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Cambuur 0-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Cambuur?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 46%, Cambuur 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Feyenoord and 64% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cambuur in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 50% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Feyenoord's matches and 64% of Cambuur's.
Do Feyenoord and Cambuur tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Cambuur 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Cambuur 1-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.96 xG and Cambuur 0.81 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Feyenoord fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cambuur landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.12 / defence 0.70 against Cambuur attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 64% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 15%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 63%, Cambuur 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambuur's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.