Feyenoord 2-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Feyenoord face Almere City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Feyenoord and Almere City FC meet at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Feyenoord's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Feyenoord are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Almere City FC have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Feyenoord's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Feyenoord have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Almere City FC managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Feyenoord 4–1 Almere City FC — a Feyenoord win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Feyenoord and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 57% versus Almere City FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 66% | Almere City FC 50%). Note also that Almere City FC surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Feyenoord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.88 xG and Almere City FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.243 / defence 0.890 | Almere City FC attack 0.699 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.347. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 56 games and Almere City FC's last 56.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 62% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.63 | Draw 4.43 | Almere City FC 6.28. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 60% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 62% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Feyenoord 1.88 / Almere City FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.243 / def 0.890 | Almere City FC attack 0.699 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Almere City FC xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs Almere City FC kick off?
Feyenoord vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Almere City FC?
Feyenoord 2 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Feyenoord vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Almere City FC part of?
Feyenoord vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 20) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 62% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Feyenoord and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Feyenoord vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.70x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 56 games and Almere City FC's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
62%
1.63
23%
4.43
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.71
0.84
Almere City FC xG
1.63
62%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
2%
40.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.84 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord come into this having played 56 games, going 37W 13D 6L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.86 PPG from 56 outings (10W 18D 28L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.35 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Feyenoord's home form reads 19W 5D 3L across their last 27 home games, a 2.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 27 away games (5W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.84 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 37W 13D 6L in their last 56 games (2.21 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 10W 18D 28L in their last 56 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Almere City FC away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.30 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Feyenoord and Almere City FC, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Feyenoord have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won Feyenoord 6-1 Almere City FC on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Almere City FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 4, Almere City FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Feyenoord 2-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Almere City FC?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 48%, Almere City FC 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Feyenoord) and 44% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Almere City FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 37% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feyenoord and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Feyenoord's matches and 44% of Almere City FC's.
Do Feyenoord and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 74% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Almere City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Almere City FC 2-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.88 xG and Almere City FC 0.84 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.24 / defence 0.89 against Almere City FC attack 0.70 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 62% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 16%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 66%, Almere City FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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